Wasted time or peace of mind?
The media is filled with information about both Bush and Kerry on which voters will likely rely to make their final decision at the ballots this November. But aside from all important question of who to cast your vote for, we might want to ask a more basic question; is your vote worth anything? Jim Holt, in his New York Times article (free registration required), answers that it technically isn't worth squat.
The likely hood that your individual vote will decide an election is about 1 in 100,000,000. Now I'm not really a betting man, but those are not great odds. In fact, while the actual influence of your vote in a National election approximates zero, the very act of voting can be quite costly. The time you spend educating yourself on the candidates and issues is time you could have spent doing something else (the ol' concept of opportunity cost). For example, instead of watching the Democratic and Republican conventions on CNN you could have been watching an episode of your favorite mind numbing sitcom or reading this witty, clever blog.
So why do we even bother then? Holt believes that it is probably a combination of overestimating the impact of our vote, and our desire to express ourselves at the ballot regardless of impact. This latter reason particularly resonates with me. Even though I realize that practically I'm not going to make much of a difference, I still benefit from the knowledge that as an informed person I made my political statement. In a small (apparently insignificant) way I made my wishes known. And it is probably for that reason that I'll spend the time to fill out the absentee voter forms and through my opinion into the dark void next November. I'll at least have the peace of mind that I gave it my best shot, no matter how long a shot it might actually be. Besides, I'm in Fort Crap-hole Texas, I've nothing better to do.
Now let the "It's your civic duty you lazy bastard," comments commence.
4 Comments:
Holt is partially right, but the part that really counts is the part he doesn't get. Your vote tends not to count for much because of the way people tend to vote. Since many people don’t bother much with trying to find out anything about the candidates, they often make decisions based on what they see on TV. This makes me crazy, because looking good on TV is not about being right, it’s about spending money. Since lots of people vote this way, politicians can get elected by making lots of promises on TV that sound good, see “No child left behind” and the “Clear Skies Initiative” for examples. Once elected promises can be ignored because the general populace won’t remember what you said, only that it sounded good. Or, better yet, you can make promises and keep them such as the latter example above. They sound good but are pretty misleading.
Ok, so some people get to vote with the dollar as well as their vote. Ok, these people often get elected. But the only reason that continues to work is because not enough of us are really paying attention. If we were all the money in the world would not make much difference in an election, and politics would have to start doing good as well as sounding good. Your vote is not cancelled out by the other thoughtful and involved people out there, whether they agree with you or not. Your vote is cancelled by the millions who don’t really care to think about the impact of politics on the world.
So, since voting with just your one vote may not “make much difference” you still have to keep voting. Not because it’s your civic duty, but because if you do not politicians will notice that no one is really thinking anymore and the only way to get elected is to start making meaningless claims and statements, wearing a power tie, and sporting an expensive hair cut. (see today’s newspaper in any part of the county for examples)
Kevin
Kevin-
Your comment illustrates another issue that the field of "public choice theory" is concerned with, voter ignorance. The incentive to become an informed voter is much different than that which inspires us to be informed consumers. When you plan on purchasing a car you seek out information because your choice has a direct benefit or cost. If you don't research the available options and consumer reports then you might end up with a lemon. Voting is much different. Both costs and benefits are dispersed instead of centralized. Whether you spend all your time becoming informed about the issues or not, your vote will have little to no impact. Your ignorance in this case (unlike the case of the car) will not cost you. There is very little incentive to seek out the information. It is for this reason that polls often find that a large portion of voters are unaware of basic political facts and often believe falsehoods.
And isn't it wonderful how our current system is set up, these initiatives like "No Child Left Behind" only further the disconnect for future voters. When all kids are learning for the purpose of passing a test there is no time to teach critical thinking or government or politics. With the mainstream media pretty much spouting off any press release it's handed as gospel there is no questioning of the party line by authority figures that might be all some people are exposed too.
I wish we could move away from politics as a career and back to the days when ordinary citezens would take their turns as a civic duty to occupy office for a term or two and then go back to their ordinary lives again; much as you are doing now Joey. It seems these days that almost all aspects of politics are tainted by corporate and monetary interests.
As a people we need to stop accepting lies from our leaders. It's incredible how many elected officials can lie through their teeth and be caught on it but it doesn't seem to impact people. For christ's sake Marion Barry can smoke crack with a hooker and get re-elected, our current president loved the cocaine and the sauce, now he loves (only the christian) god.
Blaahhhhh.
Anyway, that's my take....
Andrew G
Do not confuse a vote for a losing candidate as zero impact. Every time you vote you influence politics whether your choice wins or not. Both parties look very closely at the numbers for every election. They use all that political "science" to determine which parts of a platform got them votes and which lost them. These are the guidelines for the next batch of promises and platforms. Now if we could only get them to keep their word...
Kevin
Post a Comment
<< Home